Impact & Modeling

Expected effects and methodology.

Expected Effects

The Act is designed to produce measurable improvements across housing affordability, wage growth, and homeownership. All projections are estimates based on stated assumptions.

+10-25%[1][2]

Entry-Level Home Availability

More entry-level homes within 5 years as competition from foreign buyers and institutional investors falls and supply improves.

-5-15%[1][3]

Investor-Driven Price Premium

Lower price floors set by foreign capital and institutional investors, moderating growth in high-pressure markets over the medium term.

-2-5 pts[4][1]

Annual Rent Growth

Slower rent growth in high-pressure markets as supply rises and institutional pricing pressure eases.

+5-12%[5][6]

Wages in Affected Occupations

Improved wage leverage for domestic workers in sectors currently distorted by visa programs, relative to baseline.

+3-8 pts[7][8]

Homeownership Rate, Median-Income Households

Higher homeownership for working families over 10 years as affordability improves and competition for entry-level homes decreases.

All figures are modeled estimates based on stated assumptions, not guarantees. See methodology and sources below.

Methodology

Projections are based on a combination of:

Data Sources

  • •Census Bureau housing data
  • •Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data
  • •Federal Reserve economic indicators
  • •Academic research on housing markets

Analytical Methods

  • •Supply-demand equilibrium modeling
  • •Labor market elasticity estimates
  • •Comparative policy analysis
  • •Sensitivity testing across scenarios

Sources & References

  1. U.S. Government Accountability Office: Large Investors and Single-Family Rentals (GAO-24-106643) - Documents 450,000 institutional investor-owned homes and market concentration rates of up to 25% in metro areas such as Atlanta
  2. National Association of Realtors: International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate (2025) - Foreign buyers purchased 78,100 homes ($56 billion), 47% all-cash, concentrated in Florida, California, and Texas
  3. U.S. Census Bureau: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey - Quarterly data on homeownership rates, vacancy rates, and housing inventory levels used in supply-demand modeling
  4. Federal Reserve: The Effect of Institutional Investors on Rent (2024) - Research finding that institutional landlords raise rents approximately 60% faster than small landlords upon acquisition
  5. George Borjas, Harvard University: Immigration and the American Worker (2013) - Analysis of immigration-driven wage redistribution ($402 billion from workers to employers) and labor market elasticity estimates
  6. Economic Policy Institute: H-1B Visas and Prevailing Wage Levels - Documents 60% of H-1B positions certified at below-median wages and 17-34% pay gaps relative to market rates
  7. Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University: The State of the Nation's Housing (2024) - Comprehensive analysis of homeownership trends, affordability barriers, and the 3.8 million unit housing shortage
  8. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Current Population Survey - Homeownership and Income Data - Historical wage, income, and employment data used in baseline projections for affected occupations and income groups

Projected ranges are modeled estimates based on the sources above, using supply-demand equilibrium modeling, labor market elasticity estimates, and comparative policy analysis. Actual outcomes will depend on implementation details, market conditions, and complementary policy actions.

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